Summary of National Results 2022
Here were poll data-based goals for the Senate - with Governor opportunities - set last August-September:
Protect in priority order
1. Cortez Masto (NV)
2. Warnock (GA)
2. Kelly, he's well ahead, possible Gov flip
3. Hassan (NH)
Flip red to blue:
1. WI Defeat Johnson, Protect Gov Evers
1 OH Ryan to flip
2. NC Beasley to flip
2. PA Fetterman flip and flip Gov
Excellent Results! All the Protect candidates won, despite very narrow margins right before the election. In the Flip column, Fetterman had a comfortable win for PA Senator. Three Governors in states where we worked for Senators, either held or flipped red to blue: Katie Hobbs (AZ flip), Tony Evers (WI hold) and Josh Shapiro (PA flip). We lost in both OH and NC Senate races as those candidates slipped quite a bit by the end of October and fell off the recommended list. Ditto for Senate in WI. The priorities were set according to whether the candidate was in or outside the sweet spot polling at 1-4% above his/her opponent. All were tracked and adjusted through late October. This is near-ideal targeting as zero losses would indicate we played it a little too safe.
2022: Looking Back - Call to Action, Strategy and Tactics
We let US Senate races lead the way. Of the close ones, we emphasized the Democratic parties in those states where there were also key Gov, Secretary of State, etc. races.
National Elections - Senate and Governor Targets
~Nov 3: everything has tightened - we can look at reasons later. The window of opportunity is still looking to help candidates for whom a small nudge can help put them over the line. In 2020, the window was not centered around zero, but more like 1%-5% in polls. In 2022, larger leads have melted away and so many of our favorites are now slightly below the window at just +1 or +2%. Nate Silver 538 predictions on chance to win are included. Get ready, they are pessimistic for Dems. The recommendation is to drop two because they really seem to be out of contention. It all comes down to 4 risky states, and NH which is in the "make sure" category.
AZ, Sen Kelly and, hopefully AG Hobbs, candidate for Gov
WI, Gov Evers. Mandala looks pretty unlikely now against Ron Johnson, blast it.
NV, Sen Cortez-Masto, and 2 House races
NH, Hassan for Senate, and Pappas for House.
PA, Fetterman for Senate and PA 17 House, Deluzio. Shapiro has the Gov all but wrapped up.
NC, Recommend diverting effort elsewhere Beasley has been behind a while and is -2.4 or so.
OH, See above. Ryan is way behind.
US House Targets
The Cook Report has already narrowed races down and shows Tossups in red-leaning districts and tossups in B
blue leaning districts. The House poll and 538 data posted two or three weeks ago is out of date, surprise.
Here is the poll data of most of the Cook Report Democratic toss up category:
VA2 Luria/Kiggens EVEN
PA 17 Deluzio +1.2%
TX 34 Gonzalez .1%
TX 15 Vallejo +.5%
MI 7 Slotkin +3.9%
ME 2 Golden +2.5%
NH 1 Pappas +2.3%
RI 2 Magaziner +1.2%
NV 1 Titus +.2%
NV 3 Susie Lee +1.8
AZ, WI none really close
Seize the Moment: Opportunities For Grass Roots Work
We aim to bring your favorite canvassing method right to your desk top! If there is something special in the way of type of work, state, etc, contact firstname.lastname@example.org for help finding what motivates you.
You can also find partner organizations we have worked with in the past.
Write Letters to voters in key states
How it works: Start an account, then adopt some voters in the campaign of your choice. Download and print the letters for your adoptees. Fill in voter's name after "Dear..." and sign your first name at the end. Address and fill the envelope. Return address is your first name, last initial, Vote Forward. Accumulate letters until the mail out date in late October. A non-partisan organization group focused on getting out the vote.
Working on getting feed restored.....
Write post cards to key demographics
Longtime member Bonnie is a champion post card writer and supplier to her friends. She has agreed now to distribute them to a larger list and has postcards NOW! The cost is currently subsidized by the CDTC. Email her ASAP for the next order!
Pickup will be from a high chair on her porch. Contact email@example.com.
Texting is available in four (or more if you look) of our high priority states. States have been waiting till October for most texting. As of Oct 16, they are listing sessions on the fly. If you already joined a campaign, you will find out quickly in your Slack workspace. All give training (though that may end sometime soon.) The logo pix to the right are useful: the campaign name is frequently the organization name to choose in Mobilize.us
Kelly Coffman. 1st time candidate.
Phonebank link: https://www.openvpb.com/vpb_bycode/23C235H-841838
The quickest way to get what you want: Go to mobilize.us, then click the Filters button in the top tool bar. There, you select the type of event (for instance "text banking") that you are looking for, a date range and all the campaigns you might be interested in. Choose a wide range of campaigns as the filter may eliminate many.
PA - A chance to send Dr Oz back to TV - No more shifts available
Zoom training in Slack (get help from moderators as you go) and Spoke (have text exchanges with voters.). Personal experience: well organized and that great feeling afterwards! Support Governor Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman for Senate.
Training and Texting! No more shifts.
Experience in 2020 revealed excellent organization. More opportunities will be available around late August. This effort is to flip the Senate and support Democratic incumbent Gov Evers. Zoom training in first session. Slack and Spoke.
DNC Text Training
The Democratic National Committee is offering texting training and, hopefully afterward can help you find a state.
Find Your Own - Quick Start
Mobilize.us is the shopping mall of events! Most of our grass roots opportunities list here and Mobilize provides a common interface for you to sign up for work. Get an account and you can easily get a list of all that you are signed up to do.
Jasmine Clark HD 108; Elected 2018, new district lines.
Phonebank link: https://www.openvpb.com/vpb_bycode/65D435I-999515
Follow script, no phone messages.
No more shifts.
Train and text with the AZ Democratic Party!
Only if already trained.
Train and text with Nevada Democrats!
Knock on doors in NH
Organize New Hampshire has opportunities to knock on doors in and around Nashua, NH just over the border through election day. Looks like you need to get together on your own if you want to carpool. Alex Bausch, our contact in previous in-state phone banking, can also put you in touch with NH canvassing contacts: firstname.lastname@example.org
Easy Phone Banking
Recruit NH and PA volunteers - people aligned with you.
Senator Maggie Hassan is among the top Senate races to support. Representative Pappas is also up for reelection in a close race. NH (up to Nov 3) and PA (up to Oct 31) need election workers and you can recruit them.
Phonebank grass-roots workers from 2020.
Held in a Carlisle home, and it's in person or you can link in virtually. Together We Elect provides training, and you have support from friends and neighbors as you work. Local team is recruiting Democrats they know from work in 2020. For information contact Barney Arnold email@example.com
Donate to Candidates
You can google candidate campaign sites. Once there you can volunteer for their campaigns, or make that all-important donation. They love you to set up a periodic automatic donation - this helps them plan their staffing more reliably.
Georgia organizer, Bob Herndon, spoke with the Carlisle DTC at our August meeting and urged us to help. Meantime, he has two "curated" state legislature candidates he recommends for phonebanking and donations.
Yes, state elections are important. MA is more purple and red than you might guess. MA primaries are later, and you can review the candidates that will be on our primary ballot below.
Middlesex Race News
Simon Cataldo has forwarded two links to the September 28th candidate debate, which included exchanges on the ballot questions. There is also a forum hosted by the LWV on October 11, in person, Harvey Wheeler.
All are welcome - You need not be a member or even a resident! We have unenrolled volunteers too. The CDTC has member and associate member openings as well as a Friends list. CONTACT us if you would like to talk.